http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/08/672631/caging-unilateral-risk/ Caging unilateral risk Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Sep 08 11:14. スイス国立銀行の劇的な外為介入政策へのリアクション:ノルウェイ中央銀行のメッセージ FTアルファビレ With much talk of co-ordinated policy moves being hatched at tomorrow’s G7 meeting, it seems that some folks do not “get” that the biggest risks in left field item terms are unilateral moves, despite the ‘shock and awe’ of the SNB move. Now look at the progression in Norges Bank governor’s language since Tuesday, as per the headlines below. 09:07 08Sep11 RTRS-NORWAY C.BANK CHIEF SAYS A TOO STRONG CROWN CAN CAUSE OVER TIME TOO LOW INFLATION AND TOO WEAK GROWTH 09:08 08Sep11 RTRS-NORWAY C.BANK CHIEF SAYS IF THAT HAPPENS THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED BY OUR MONETARY POLICY 09:09 08Sep11 RTRS-NORWAY C.BANK CHIEF SAYS IN NORWAY THIS MEANS SETTING INTEREST IS THE MOST RELEVANT TOOL 09:10 08Sep11 RTRS-NORWAY C.BANK CHIEF SAYS MONETARY POLICY CAN REACT QUICKLY TO CHANGES IN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Quite clearly on Tuesday, he was happy to accept that the charge into the NOK was probably knee-jerk, and thus happy to just to say a new rate path will be outlined in October (i.e. expect rate path to be revised lower), he stuck to that line yesterday, and this morning his frustration at FX markets not getting the message has resulted in a fairly explicit rate cut threat. ノルウェイはSNBの政策の影響を歓迎し、ノルウェークローネの外為政策については金利政策で 対応可能という。10月の金利政策はたぶん利下げで、それがFX市場へのノルウェイ当局のメッセージ Expect more of this in places like Sweden, Canada, and perhaps one or other of the LatAms (Brazil, Chile & Colombia are obvious candidates, Peru tonight an outsider) and Asia (Philippines, South Korea and Indonesia are the prime candidates). Point is, a g こうしたSNB政策へのリアクションが、今後スウェーデン、カナダ、そしてたぶんブラジル、チリ、 コロンビアなどのラテンアメリカ諸国や、韓国、フィリピン、インドネシアなどのアジア諸国に現れよう
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スイス国立銀行のスイスフランの対ユーロ相場への介入について、WSJのレビュー&アウトルック ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904537404576554590304401066.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopBucket REVIEW & OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER 7, 2011 Swiss Franc-ensense:Central banking in a currency crisis. But throwing a bone to exporters is not the most important reason for the central bank to intervene. Central banks are the monopoly suppliers of the commodity known as money. When a currency like the Swiss franc appreciates rapidly, the market is sending a signal that not enough francs are being printed to meet demand. 中央銀行が為替相場に介入している最重要の理由は輸出業者を支援することではない、 中央銀行というのはマネーというコモディティの独占的供給者であるので、スイスフランのように 通貨が急速に上昇する時は、市場が示していることは需要を満たすに充分な量の通貨が 印刷供給されていないということである (中略 It's not fashionable these days for central bankers to worry too much about the external value of their currencies. Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange-rate system in the 1970s, policy makers have grown fond of saying that markets should set exchange rates. But markets can't set the value of a commodity whose sole supplier is the central bank, and this pseudo-laissez-faire is an abdication of central banks' duty to control the supply of their currency, both internally and externally. Full marks to the Swiss for breaking with this mistaken central-bank orthodoxy. 中央銀行の外為介入というのはブレトンウッズ体制の崩壊以降、あまりファッショナブルとみなされて いないが、市場は中央銀行が独占供給するところのマネーというコモディティの価値を定めることは できない。レッセフェア(自由放任)の方法は中央銀行の通貨供給管理責任の放棄と言える。スイス銀行 の政策には満点をあげたい。