<シェール・ガスのエネルギー革命は続く・・・> 国内では、さほど報道されていないのだけれど、一般教書演説でオバマ大統領はアメリカ国内のシェール・ガス開発を絶賛して: State of the Union address, U.S. President Barack Obama wholeheartedly embraced hydraulic fracturing without even mentioning it, telling his audience, “We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years. And my administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy.” ttp://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Poland-Gives-Green-Light-to-Massive-Fracking-Efforts.html アメリカの一部の(左翼)環境保護派は、この天然ガス開発にも反対していて、とかを準備しているような状況なのでオバマ 大統領演説のこの部分には口あんぐり、茫然自失; まあそれはともかく、アメリカのこの天然ガス開発の新たなブームは東欧に飛び火していて、 Poland has taken a different tack, noting that thanks to fracking of natural gas shale deposits, in 2009 the United States became the world's largest gas producer, overtaking Russia and driving down prices. The day after the contentious Bulgarian vote Polish Treasury Minister Mikolaj Budzanowski told reporters that Polish companies with permits to explore for shale gas in the country must intensify drilling to start production of the fuel by 2014 or 2015, with Polish companies each drilling 12 wells and performing 12 hydraulic fracking operations annually. (ブルガリア議会は国内のシェールガス開発を禁止する決定をしたのだが)ポーランドは政府が国内のシェールガス開発を支持。 計画では2014-15には12のガス田で操業を行う予定。 The reason for such enthusiasm? Simple, said Budzanowski - Poland’s shale-derived gas could be as much as 50 percent cheaper than the Gazprom natural gas Poland now receives from the 2,607 mile-long Yamal-Europe natural gas pipeline, which currently costs Warsaw more than $500 per 1,000 cubic meters (tcm) for West Siberian output. ポーランドがシェール・ガス開発に積極的な理由は、現在のポーランドがロシアからのパイプラインのガスに依存していて、国内 の開発が成功すれば価格がロシアから買うガスの半分になると予想されるため。
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Seeking to cut the expensive Russian natural gas umbilical cord, Poland has high expectations for its projected indigenous production shale natural gas, as it currently depends on Russian Gazprom supplies for nearly two-thirds of its annual gas consumption of 14 bcm, estimating its domestic reserves of conventional natural gas at some 100 bcm, which would only meet domestic needs for slightly more than seven years. ポーランドの天然ガス需要は現在140億立方メートルで三分の二をロシアからの供給によっている。 In contrast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has estimated Poland could have the biggest shale natural gas reserves in Europe, amounting to some 5.3 tcm. アメリカのエネルギー情報庁はポーランドが欧州最大のシェール・ガス埋蔵を持つと推測し、その量は5.3兆立方メートルとしている ttp://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Poland-Gives-Green-Light-to-Massive-Fracking-Efforts.html
A report from Japan's Atomic Energy Agency said the China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) stopped generating electricity in October following an accident. With Japan already reeling from the meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant in March last year, the incident sparked alarm there and in South Korea over the prospect of radiation leaking from the CEFR. Those fears were intensified by Beijing's failure to report the accident or release details of what happened, according to a Tokyo newspaper which cited the Japanese Atomic Energy Agency's investigation. China denies nuclear accident - Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9044537/China-denies-nuclear-accident.html
ttp://www.gallup.com/poll/152222/Obama-Ratings-Historically-Polarized.aspx Obama Ratings Historically Polarized Job approval 80% among Democrats, 12% among Republican by Jeffrey M. Jones January 27, 2012 ギャラップ世論調査:オバマ大統領への評価は、歴史的に見て、二極分化が禿げしい このグラフがすべてを示していて ttp://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/-lq-st1dzeumocebswlsaq.gif 民主党はオバマ支持が80%、共和党は12%で、乖離が大きく、しかもそれが増大している Given the typical pattern in which presidents' ratings tend to be most polarized in their fourth year in office, when presidents are seeking re-election, Republicans' and Democrats' views of Obama may diverge even further this year.
ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/01/27/the-yens-40-year-win-streak-may-be-ending/?mod=WSJBlog The Yen’s 40-Year Win Streak May Be Ending JANUARY 27, 2012, 12:37 PM シティグループほかの予想:円の対ドルでの、40年にのぼる上昇の歴史が終わる鴨? WSJマーケットビート That may be all over now. It started on Aug. 15, 1971, when U.S. President Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard and the world of modern-day foreign exchange trading began. So did the yen’s rise?from Y357.41 against the dollar in August 1971 to a record Y75.31 on Oct. 31, 2012. 対ドルでの、継続する円高の歴史が終わるのかもしれない?ニクソン・ショック以降、円は357.41から昨年10月末の75.31まで40年間 上昇を続けてきた。 The yen has barely budged from that spot since then, but some traders and ysts are wondering whether the 40-year trend is about to turn around. Analysts at Citigroup say a move toward Y100 by year-end 2013?an exchange rate last seen in 2009?”may not be as incredible [or impossible] as it today sounds.” シティグループのアナリストは2013年末の1ドル100円に向けて、交換レートが円安に動くとみている Adam Meyers, senior market strategist at Credit Agricole , suggested buying three-month dollar calls against the yen. Myers believes investors underestimated the scale of Japanese repatriation after the March 2011 earthquake. Some may be caught off guard by “the exhaustion of repatriation” and what he calls an “increasing public Japanese retaliation against a strong yen.” Since the earthquake, inflows from large European reinsurers, as well as Japan’s domestic insurance companies, contributed to a sharp rise in the yen. Additional inflows from both the corporate and retail sectors repatriating yen for dollars as a risk avoidance strategy helped the yen rise. 震災後の日本には保険会社の海外からの資金の回帰があり、円高に寄与した。また日本企業などの危険回避のための円への回帰が あった。
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But the landscape may be changing. Japanese life insurance companies and pension funds want to “compete on a world stage,” says Kevin Sollitt, foreign exchange portfolio manager for Clutterbuck Capital Management LLC. That means buying assets outside Japan. しかし保険会社や年金資金の戦略が変化していて、海外資産の購入に動く向きがある。 “With this wall of money behind them, over time, a vastly weaker yen is to come,” Sollitt said. If the U.S. economy continues to gain momentum Sollitt would consider a move to Y88.72 as a first step for the dollar’s recovery. Clutterbuck Capital Management LLCのKevin Sollittは88.72円が、ドル高に向かう最初のステップという。 Japan has a major difficulty in attracting foreign direct investment and at least for now posts a trade deficit. The country has an aging population resulting in what a Barclays research paper calls an “elderly boom.” Add in the countries fiscal deficit, the largest of any developed country, and it’s a win triple. And that deficit is rising, exceeding 1 quadrillion yen today. The aging of Japan’s population and ballooning deficit have been a known quantity for years but what is unknown is the future cost of importing energy. What could very well tip the scales in favor of a weaker yen is a sustained rise in the price of oil. 昨年は日本の貿易赤字が記録され、財政赤字が増えていて、今後とも石油価格が上昇すれば日本の貿易収支は不利で、円安に向かう と見る On Jan. 16, Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Naimi said he hopes to “stabilize this oil price and keep it at a level around $100.” サウジアラビアは石油価格をバレルあたり$100で安定化させるといっている If Saudi Arabia gets its wish?and as the world’s top oil exporter, it probably will?that means an ever-increasing fiscal deficit for energy importer Japan, further undermining the yen’s strength. そうした石油価格の高止まりがあれば円の強さが阻害される But don’t throw in the towel just yet, says Goldman Sachs . The investment firm-turned bank believes Japan’s trade deficit was a direct result of the earthquake. Goldman believes monthly surpluses will return in the second half of 2012 as the impact of the earthquake fades away gradually. So which way dollar yen? The arguments higher are clear. しかしゴールドマンサックスは日本の貿易赤字は震災のせいであり、日本の貿易収支は2012年2Qに黒字に戻ると見ている。
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But as traders often say, “the trend is your friend” and calling the bottom of a 40 year trend? Well that is not usually a very profitable trade 40年にわたる円高の歴史が終わるのかすらん? 常識的に見て、それにかけるのは危険な気がするが
ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/27/855921/fitch-cuts-italy-and-spain-two-notches/ Fitch cuts Italy and Spain two notches Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Jan 27 18:19. Six eurozone sovereigns (but not France!) downgraded by Fitch on Friday… 格付け会社フィッチ、イタリアとスペインを2段格下げ FTアルファビレ ユーロ圏の6ヶ国を格下げ、でも、フランスは含まない -Belgium LT IDR downgraded to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F1+’ -Cyprus LT IDR downgraded to ‘BBB-’ from ‘BBB’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F3′ -Ireland LT IDR affirmed at ‘BBB+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F2′ -Italy LT IDR downgraded to ‘A-’ from ‘A+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F2′ from ‘F1′ -Slovenia LT IDR downgraded to ‘A’ from ‘AA-’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F1′ from ‘F1+’ -Spain LT IDR downgraded ‘A’ from ‘AA-’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F1′ from ‘F1+’ *注:LT IDRs = long-term issuer default ratings
>>71 この、Q4のGDPの構成要素で在庫積み増しが異常に大きいことについて、英国のシンクタンク、ロンバード・ ストリート研究所の(2012Q1への) 悲観的な見方、WSJマーケットビート ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/01/27/first-quarter-gdp-could-be-a-big-goose-egg-lombard-street/?mod=WSJBlog A very bearish call on the US economy from Charles Dumas, chief economist at Lombard Street Research. He argues that the unexpected element in the somewhat weak fourth-quarter GDP growth was that two thirds of it came from a build-up of inventories. Q4GDPの三分の二は在庫積み増しなので The inventory contribution to growth, nearly twice what his research team’s expectation at 1.9%, means that inventories are more likely to contribute negatively to the first quarter than positively. This points to the potential weakness of both consumers and capital expenditures and, more importantly, that government spending is now a major drag on GDP. その1.9%という異常な大きさはQ1のGDPに悪影響が出る。消費支出や固定資産投資の弱さ、政府支出の減少があるので Q1のGDPは大変弱い(0%とかの)値になり得るという First Quarter GDP Could Be a Big Goose Egg: Lombard Street
ttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-chinas-power/2012/01/20/gIQA3CFSTQ_story.html Five Myths:Challenging everything you think you know Five myths about China’s power By Minxin Pei, Published: January 27 貴方の知っていると思っていることへの挑戦:チャイナ・パワーの5つの神話(虚像)By Minxin Pei ワシントンポスト 1. China’s rise is marginalizing American influence in Asia.中国の台頭はアジアにおけるアメリカの影響力を低下させる Just the opposite.(ry それは逆 2. China’s massive foreign exchange reserves give it huge clout. 中国の膨大な外貨準備は大きな力 China’s hard currency hoard adds little punch to its geopolitical power because its stockpile results from a growth strategy that relies on an undervalued currency to keep exports competitive. If China threatens to reduce its investment in U.S. debt, it will either have to find alternative investments (not an easy task these days) or export less to the United States (not a good idea for Chinese manufacturers).(ry 3. The Communist Party has the Internet under control.共産党はインターネットを(検閲の)管理下においている In spite of its huge investments in technology and manpower, the Communist Party is having a hard time taming China’s vibrant cyberspace.(ry むりむりむりのかたつむり 4. China’s regime has bought off the middle class.中国政府は中間層の支持を得ている Hardly. ・・・ There is a world of difference between political apathy and enduring loyalty.(ry まさか。支持としらけは異なる。 5. China’s rapid economic growth shows no signs of slowing. 中国の急速な経済成長は続く If China wants to keep its high growth rate, it must graduate to making Chinese-designed high-tech and high-value -added products. It will need more innovation, which demands less government control and more intellectual freedom. Most critically, the investment-driven and state-led economic model responsible for China’s rapid growth must give way to a more efficient, consumption-driven, market-oriented model. Such a shift will not be possible without downsizing the state and making the party accountable to the Chinese people.
ttp://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/01/26/with-eu-embargo-on-iran-oil-chinese-traders-set-to-seize-opportunity/ JANUARY 26, 2012, 11:54 AM HKT Chinese Traders Poised to Profit From Iran Oil Embargo 欧米のイランへの石油輸出禁止の制裁措置で、中国は大もうけできる WSJチャイナ・リアルタイム For example, if the crude oil spot price were $100 per barrel and Iran had to discount its oil to $80 per barrel to entice buyers, a Chinese trader could then swap the Iranian crude to another firm. By swapping its Iranian crude for another oil cargo at market prices (or a higher price than it paid the Iranian sellers), the company can gain “extra” oil relative to what it originally paid in Iran and resell it for a profit.