ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/07/revenge_of_the_sunnis Revenge of the Sunnis：What the Arab Spring is really about. BY EDWARD LUTTWAK | DECEMBER 7, 2011 スンニ派の復讐 BY EDWARD LUTTWAK フォーリン・ポリシー ＊シリアのアサド政権に対する反政府抗議運動の広がりについて、これをシーア派政権（シリア、イラン）に対抗する スンニ派の復讐、復権の運動であるとして解説する。 From the Saudi point of view, the damage inflicted by the United States in 2003 by destroying Saddam's military strength was compounded by the failure to defend deposed President Hosni Mubarak's government in Cairo. The Egyptian regime had other merits for the Al Saud family, including a respectable rate of economic growth, which is now a receding memory. Its chief virtue in Saudi eyes, however, was Mubarak's systematic opposition to Iran and its allies, and even the Shiites as such. Egypt's post-Mubarak rulers are hardly likely to embrace either Iran or its doctrine -- the country is solidly Sunni -- but there is no guarantee that they will emulate Mubarak's very active anti-Iran policy, which was strengthened by pragmatic cooperation with Israel. Indeed, the first act of the post -Mubarak interim regime was to call for the restoration of diplomatic relations with Iran -- even if to no great effect so far. But having greatly damaged the Sunni front by sweeping away Mubarak, the "Arab Spring" is now greatly helping it by weakening the Assad regime in Syria. The rulers of Qatar and of Saudi Arabia are untroubled by the obvious contradictions in their policy toward this year's Arab revolts: They are defending Bahrain's ruling family against the majority Shiite population while loudly criticizing and sanctioning the Assad regime for oppressing its own majority Sunni population. And they are demanding democratic rule in Syria while accepting none of it at home. For Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, the purpose of overthrowing Assad is to break the "Shiite crescent": bringing Damascus under Sunni rule, repudiating its alliance with Iran, and cutting off Hezbollah from its logistic base in Syria, thereby allowing Lebanon's Sunnis to regain power along with their Christian allies. A further aim is to provide a refuge for Iraq's outnumbered Sunnis, just across the border. A broader goal to be achieved by denying Tehran its only Arab ally is to reduce Iran's acceptability by Arab populations everywhere. サウジアラビアと湾岸アラブ諸国にとって、シリアのアサド政権をスンニ派政権に交代されることはシリアとイランの連携を 断ち切り、イランを孤立化させ、ヒズボラを弱体化させ、レバノンのスンニ派とキリスト教徒の勢力を強化することになり、 更にイラクからシリアに逃避したスンニ派の支援にもなる。これら全ては中東のイランの影響力の弱体化につながる（ry
シティグループの欧州経済予測：Not even in Japan・・（FTアルファビレ） Our economists believe the sovereign debt and banking crises are causing a renewed recession in the Euro Area. Beginning in 4Q 2012 [Sic], they forecast real GDP to contract for 6 consecutive quarters. It is expected to be an especially protracted recession. Not even in Japan, during its lost decades, did real GDP decline for 6 consecutive quarters. Our economists’ Euro Zone forecasts imply real GDP will be some way below the trend established during the first 10 years of Euro inception (Figure 3) and not get back to previous peak levels for many years to come. 我々のエコノミストの予測ではソブリン負債危機とそれに伴う銀行危機によって欧州経済は2012年4Qからリセッションに入り 6連続四半期にわたって実質GDPが減少する。日本の「失われた10年」でさえ6四半期連続の実質GDP減少というほどでは無かった。 我々の欧州のGDPの10年予測は下図のように・・ グラフ：欧州経済の実質GDP推移の予想 ttp://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/12/Citigroup-Eurozone-forecasts.jpg グラフ：英国を除く欧州の銀行ローンのローカルGDP比率 ttp://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/12/European-banks-loanns-to-local-GDP-Citigroup.jpg Given how Euro Zone banks and their subsidiaries dominate lending in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), CIRA Banks ysts believe this will be the region most vulnerable to any deleveraging. For example, loans by Euro-owned banks are equivalent to about 100% of GDP in the Czech Republic and Poland (Figure 6). By comparison, loans by Euro banks in the Asian money centers, Hong Kong and Singapore, are equivalent to 40% of local GDP. And Euro banks make up an even smaller proportion of the loans (relative to GDP) in the major LatAm economies. Central and Eastern Europe are most exposed to any weakness in Euro Zone imports. For example, Czech and Hungarian exports to the Euro Zone account for more than 40% of local GDP. Simplistically, a 1% contraction in Euro Zone exports would subtract about 0.5% from GDP in these economies. Outside of Europe (Eastern or Western), Hong Kong has the biggest export exposure to the Euro Zone at about 14% of GDP. By comparison, Chinese exports to the Euro Zone make up just 4% and it is even less for the US. We should stress that Figure 7 highlights the potential trade vulnerability to a Euro Zone recertsssion. At the moment, our Euro Zone economists do not forecast a contraction in imports over the next two years (they forecast flat imports in 2012 and a 2% increase in 2013). So based on our forecasts, there may not be serious contagion via trade. ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/08/786571/not-even-in-japan/
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予想されたことだけれど、オバマのカンサスでの演説は保守派からは呆れ返るという反応、ラディカルズからは絶賛・・ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203413304577084292119160060.html DECEMBER 8, 2011 Obama's Godfather Speech：The president sounds more like a Corleone than a Roosevelt. By DANIEL HENNINGER オバマ大統領のカンサス州Osawatomieでの演説は、ルーズベルトのようと言うよりはコルレオーネのように聞こえる By DANIEL HENNINGER WSJ、8日 （注：Vito Corleone アメリカのマフィア映画The Godfather（1972年）でマーロン・ブランドが演じた主人公の名前） The Osawatomie speech sounded like what you'd expect to hear in Caracas or Buenos Aires. As in: "The free market has never been a license to take whatever you can from whomever you can." (Applause.) And: "Their philosophy is simple. We are better off when everybody is left to fend for themselves and play by their own rules." Some will say hearing crude Chavista populism in the Obama speech is an overreaction. That once it's understood the Kansas speech was the work of the party leader, not the president of the United States, it becomes easier to think about it without overreacting to its intense and vivid rhetoric: "Millions of working families in this country . . . are now forced to take their children to food banks for a decent meal."
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b76c54d6-20d5-11e1-816d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fuxWQyPC PetroChina finds shale gas reserves By Leslie Hook in Beijing December 7, 2011 7:01 pm ペトロチャイナは四川省でシェールガスの埋蔵を発見 FT PetroChina has discovered shale gas in China’s Sichuan province, confirming that the energy-hungry country is sitting on vast reserves of this unconventional fuel source. China has more shale gas reserves than any other country in the world, with 1,275tr cu ft of recoverable shale gas reserves, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration. That is enough to supply China for more than 300 years, based on current consumption levels. 中国は世界最大のシェールガス埋蔵を持つと推定されていて、1275tr cu ft 現行使用量の300年分をもつと推定される。 Despite the apparent resources, some ysts are sceptical about how soon China can make shale gas production profitable given the relatively low price of natural gas in China and the lack of pipeline infrastructure. Two geologists contacted by the FT said that 10,000 cu m per day was not large relative to onshore US fields, adding that production from shale gas wells declines rapidly over the lifetime of the well. PetroChina’s southern Sichuan shale acreage includes the Changning and Weiyuan blocks. On the nearby Fushun -Yongchuan block, a joint venture project between PetroChina and Shell has drilled several exploration wells for shale gas, at least one of which has gas production, according to media reports earlier this year. Shell declined to comment on the production of the block, saying that “exploration work is ongoing”.
FTの実況ブログから、ECBの総裁は「ノン・スタンダードな手法で銀行セクターに流動性を提供」 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/12/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-19/#axzz1fx1kCe4r Announces further non-standard measures which “should ensure enhanced access of banking sector to liquidity”. Banks are expected to support provision credit to households and non-financial institutions New, longer maturity (36-month), longer-term refinancing operations Relaxation of rating required for some collateral that can be used with ECB from Triple A to Single A. MPC decided to reduce reserve ratio currently 2 per cent to 1 per cent. “This will free up collateral.”
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ユーロとユーロ圏の銀行株価はECBの36ヶ月ファイナンス他の発表で上昇 （FT実況ブログ） Euro and Eurozone banking stocks higher after ECB announces two 36-month refinancing operations and widens collateral pool for its lending facility. Draghi comments have reversed earlier losses.
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ECB総裁の記者会見発言 Today 13:31 ? ECB’S DRAGHI ? UNDERLYING PACE OF MONETARY EXPANSION CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE Today 13:32 ? DRAGHI-COST PRESSURES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST OVER POLICY RELEVANT TIME Today 13:32 ? DRAGHI-ECB ADDOPTED MORE NON-STANDARD MEASURES Today 13:33 ? DRAGHI-ECB TO CONDUCT TWO LONG TERM OPS WITH MATURITY OF 36 MONTHS Today 13:33 ? DRAGHI-INTEREST RATE TO BE INDEXED TO MAIN RATE Today 13:34 ? DRAGHI-HAVE EASED COLLATERAL RULES Today 13:34 ? DRAGHI-ABS HAVING SECOND BEST SINGLE A RATING WILL BE ACCEPTED Today 13:35 ? DRAGHI-ECB HAS DECIDED TO CUT RESERVE RATIO TO 1 PCT Today 13:36 ? DRAGHI-MEASURES TO CUT RESERVE RATIO WILL TAKE EFFECT JAN 18 2012
ttp://www.huffingtonpost.ca/cameron-fenton/abandon-all-hope-ye-who-e_b_1136037.html Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Durban Posted: 12/ 8/11 12:13 PM ET ダーバン（の気候変動国際会議）に来たれし者、すべての望みを捨てよ By Cameron Fenton National Director, Canadian Youth Climate Coalition ＊これは飴のお花畑と言うかリリカルレフトの一大居住地であるHuffingtonpostに掲載されたグリーン運動家の評論で ダーバン気候変動国際会議に集まった諸国の指導者が全く不甲斐無い、と憤慨している評論。まあ、そういうしとたち の気持ちは想像できなくもないけど。しかしながらグローバルな熱狂的ムーブメントであった地球温暖化阻止というの は、少なくとも従来のままのスタイルでの継続は不可能で、なぜならば（1）アメリカでキャップ＆トレードの法制化 が失敗、（2）コペンハーゲン気候変動サミットが分水嶺となって途上国と先進国の双方を法的に拘束する国際合意とい うのはほぼ実現不可能なことが解った、為で（ry これ↓は今月初めにWSJに掲載された評論で、気候変動ムーブメントの現状と将来を論じて ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203935604577066183761315576.html The Great Global Warming Fizzle The climate religion fades in spasms of anger and twitches of boredom. By BRET STEPHENS GLOBAL VIEWNOVEMBER 29, 2011
ttp://www.xinhua.jp/industry/media/286584/ 中国のアニメ漫画産業、来年３２０億元の規模に 2011年12月09日 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEW YORK, Dec. 1, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue: Global and China Animation Industry Report, 2011 ttp://www.reportlinker.com/p0694458/Global-and-China-Animation-Industry-Report-2011.html#utm_source=prnewswire&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=Motion_Pi In 2010, the total output value of animation industry in China increased by 27.8% year-on-year to RMB47.084 billion. In 2015, the total output value is expected to reach RMB 120 billion, and the market scale of overall industry Chain will surpass RMB200 billion. However, the market occupancy of domestic animation industry still remains small, which was no more than 12% in 2010, a steep decrease over the past two years. Global and China Animation Industry Report 2011 highlights: --Overview of animation industry; animation industry in the United States, Japan and other countries; industry scale, market occupancy, product type of China's animation industry; --Production and product registration of TV animation industry; overview of animation film market; ysis of film production, comics publication industry, new media animation, animation derivatives, animation industry base;? --Analysis of 7 key foreign animation enterprises, namely, Disney, Bandai Namco Group, Pixar Animation Studios, DreamWorks, Toei Animation, Production I.G, and Sotsu; ysis of 12 typical China-based animation enterprises, including ALPHA, Talkweb Information, Toonmax Media, Huawei Toys Craft, IDMT, Jiang Toon Animation, Greatdreams, Skynet Asia Culture Communication, CCTV Animation, Sunchime Group and Zhongnan Group Cartoon Television.
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＞total output value of animation industry in China increased by 27.8% year-on-year ＊今時、これほどの高成長産業というのも珍しい・・
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c7c59190-21ba-11e1-a19f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fuxWQyPC December 8, 2011 7:27 pm China ship order fuels market glut fears By Robert Wright in London A significant order from a Chinese buyer for new crude-oil tankers has fuelled speculation that China is preparing a series of huge ship orders. 中国のバイアーがタンカーを多量に発注したことで、海運業界に（過剰能力への）恐怖が生まれている FT、9日 significant order from a Chinese buyer for new crude-oil tankers has fuelled speculation that China is preparing a series of huge ship orders. The orders would support employment in the country’s shipbuilding industry but flood struggling shipping markets with excess capacity. China Rongsheng Heavy Industries (CRHI), China’s largest privately controlled shipbuilding group by order book size, announced on Thursday that it had received an order for 10 Suezmax crude oil tankers, plus options for a further 10, for delivery in 2013 and 2014. Suezmax tankers, the second-largest commonly-used size, carry 1m barrels of oil. 中国国営の造船企業CRHIは2013－14年引渡しの10のSuezmaxタンカーを受注と発表。更にオプションで10の追加の可能性。 The order came from Global Union Shipping, whose ownership is unclear but market speculation links it to one of China’s state-owned shipping companies. New Suezmaxes cost $60m-$75m so the total order, if placed, is likely to be worth up to $1.5bn. 発注元はGlobal Union Shippingで国営海運企業と関連があると言われる。発注額は $1.5bn の規模に上る。 Paul Slater, a veteran shipping financier who has long warned of the risk that China might flood shipping markets by building excess ships, said that the order was “wholly irresponsible and unnecessary”. 業界の専門家は中国がこの規模の新規造船を行うことは不必要かつ無責任で海運業界に設備過剰をもたらすリスクがあるという。
これ↓は、コメンタリー・マガジン掲載のオバマ大統領のカンサスでの演説の評論。オバマ大統領が惨めに 崩れ落ちてゆくのを見るのは愉快なことでもないといい、最大級の批判を浴びせる。 ttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/12/08/barack-obama-political-hack/ Barack Obama, Political Hack Peter Wehner 12.08.2011 - 12:30 PM The whole thing is a shame. To watch a presidency fall apart can be a poignant thing; and to watch a president dishonor himself in the process can be a sad one. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 一方でこれ↓は、雑誌ニューヨーカー掲載のオバマ演説を賞賛する評論。オバマが保守陣営と戦う姿勢を明確 にしたことは大変喜ばしいという。いずれにせよオバマのカンサス演説というのは、とても良いリトマス試験 紙のようで、こういう機会に各種ライター、コメンテーターの立ち位置が明確になって（ry ttp://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2011/12/invoking-teddy-roosevelt-obama-finds-his-voice.html INVOKING TEDDY ROOSEVELT, OBAMA FINDS HIS VOICE Posted by John Cassidy December 6, 2011 Yes, the President has done some positive things and made some good speeches, and, yes too, he has faced enormous difficulties, but all too often his heart hasn’t seemed to be in the fight.
