May 25, 2009 Job Losses Push Safer Mortgages to Foreclosure By PETER S. GOODMAN and JACK HEALY As job losses rise, growing numbers of American homeowners with once solid credit are falling behind on their mortgages, amplifying a wave of foreclosures. In the latest phase of the nation’s real estate disaster, the locus of trouble has shifted from subprime loans — those extended to home buyers with troubled credit — to the far more numerous prime loans issued to those with decent financial histories. With many economists anticipating that the unemployment rate will rise into the double digits from its current 8.9 percent, foreclosures are expected to accelerate. That could exacerbate bank losses, adding pressure to the financial system and the broader economy. “We’re about to have a big problem,” said Morris A. Davis, a real estate expert at the University of Wisconsin. “Foreclosures were bad last year? It’s going to get worse.” Economy.com expects that 60 percent of the mortgage defaults this year will be set off primarily by unemployment, up from 29 percent last year.
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House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent, and Price-to-Income ttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/house-prices-real-prices-price-to-rent.html
John Mauldin is a multiple NYT Best Selling author and recognized financial expert. He has been heard on CNBC, Bloomberg and many radio shows across the country. He is the editor of the highly acclaimed, free weekly economic and investment e-letter that goes to over 1 million subscribers each week. This Way Be Dragons "Yesterday Fitch ratings estimated that up to 75 percent of the modifications now being done through the administration's Making Home Affordable program will re-default in six months to a year." ""Diane Pendley, managing director at Fitch, said the problem is not on that "front-end" ratio, but on the back end, which is all of the borrowers other debt (credit cards, car loans, student loans, etc.). She said that in talking with servicers, she's hearing other debt is so high that most of today's troubled borrowers cannot afford any loan payment at all, even at a very modest debt-to-income ratio." "Another problem is that with home prices continuing to fall, more and more borrowers, who are essentially just renting their mortgages now because they will never see any home equity, are walking away."
HOME prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time. Even the federal government has projected price decreases through 2010. As a baseline, the stress tests recently performed on big banks included a total fall in housing prices of 41 percent from 2006 through 2010. Their “more adverse” forecast projected a drop of 48 percent — suggesting that important housing ratios, like price to rent, and price to construction cost — would fall to their lowest levels in 20 years. Such long, steady housing price declines seem to defy both common sense and the traditional laws of economics, which assume that people act rationally and that markets are efficient. Why would a sensible person watch the value of his home fall for years, only to sell for a big loss? Why not sell early in the cycle? If people acted as the efficient-market theory says they should, prices would come down right away, not gradually over years, and these cycles would be much shorter. But something is definitely different about real estate. Long declines do happen with some regularity. And despite the uptick last week in pending home sales and recent improvement in consumer confidence, we still appear to be in a continuing price decline. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/business/economy/07view.html?_r=2&ref=business
これはもはやネタだな↓ Today’s featured property has been the object of my gaze before. On May 8, 2008, this property has already been for sale for 204 days at an asking price of $2,975,000. You think that might have been too high? It is good to see they have come to their senses and lowered the price to $2,688,000. WTF? I can’t imagine how painful it must have been for them to cut their price by over $300,000. They must feel like they are giving it away. Isn’t everyone who bought at the peak in Turtle Ridge seeing 40% appreciation in 3 years? Kool Aid Man THIS HOUSE IS RIDICULOUSLY OVERPRICED! IT WOULD BE OVERPRICED AT $1,688,000!!! ttp://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/busy-being-fabulous/
ttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aXQ2MXGoSysw まあ、俺みたいに失うものが無い貧乏人は関係ない話だが。 “Currently, we have national home prices bottoming in 2011,” they said. “However, prices for more expensive homes may not bottom out until 2012, and ultimately result in peak-to- trough declines in excess of 60 percent (compared to 40 percent nationally).” $1Mの家は400kまで落ちるという予測ｗ
Foreclosures rising in Santa Clara County By Sue McAllister Mercury News Foreclosures increased sharply in Silicon Valley last month, according to a report released Tuesday, and some experts said they are likely to keep climbing despite widespread efforts to keep people from losing their homes. There were 480 foreclosures in Santa Clara County in May, up 63 percent compared with April, according to ForeclosureRadar, a Discovery Bay company that tracks California foreclosure activity. The increase in foreclosures in May and April followed a significant decline in March, which experts attributed to the moratoriums lenders imposed earlier in the year while they waited to find out how the Obama administration's Making Home Affordable refinance and loan modification plan would affect them and their customers. The report's gauge of future foreclosure pain also worsened, at least by one measure: The pace at which Santa Clara County homeowners received "notices of default" — the first step in the foreclosure process — increased from 62 to 67 per day from April to May. The number of such notices actually declined slightly, to 1,339, because there were more business days in April than May. ForeclosureRadar CEO Sean O'Toole said Tuesday he expects foreclosures and defaults to keep rising statewide — but slowly.
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今は、頭と時間をジックリ使える賢い人が得をする時。 糞ハイエナ日系不動産屋たちに騙されないで！
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"California's home building industry is in the worst shape ever," said Horace Hogan, chairman of the California Building Industry Association, the trade group that puts on PCBC, and president of Brehm Communities, a Carlsbad (San Diego County) home builder, speaking at a news conference. "Every builder I know has laid off most of their staff, and contractors and suppliers we've done business with for years have folded up shop." Hogan had a variety of grim statistics to tick off. Although the 65,000 housing starts in California in 2008 were the lowest ever recorded, "As bad as last year was, right now 2009 looks like it might even be worse," he said, citing projections of only 40,000 housing units this year. That sluggish pace means the loss of more than 360,000 jobs and $50 billion from the state's economy, he said. Sam Chandan, president and chief economist of New York's Real Estate Econometrics, had more downbeat news at a session on the economic outlook, predicting a huge wave of defaults in commercial mortgages. "About $300 billion in commercial mortgages will come due between now and the end of 2009, and the same in 2010," he said. "We lack the capacity to refinance them. This will lead to a significant increase in defaults and delinquency rates for commercial mortgages." "Until financing frees up and the market fires up, we can't do anything," said Ron Colton, senior vice president for Seastar Communities, a Sacramento home builder that he described as "not active at the moment." ttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/17/BUVH1896KV.DTL&type=business
